• Keith

UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs Green - Betting Picks and Predictions

This week, we’ve actually got a pretty solid Fight Night card. There are far more recognizable faces on this one than last weeks, and a main event that will further push one of the next lightweight title challengers. As always, rather than covering the whole card, I’m here to bring you my favorite picks and locks. Let’s dive in.

Josiane Nunes -215 vs Ramona Pascual +185

I’ve doubted Josiane Nunes before, but tonight I’m rolling with her. She’s a small woman for MMA, standing at only 5’2, but she’s proven that her size is a non-factor. Her performance against 5’9 Bea Malecki was a perfect example, as Malecki typically uses her long arms and legs to maintain distance, and Nunes was able to cut that distance quickly and land a lot of shots, eventually putting Malecki away with an overhand in round 1. Nunes was also surprisingly really good in the clinch with the taller woman. Pascual has been finished before, so I’m rolling with Nunes to do it again tonight by KO/TKO at +100.

Face off between Bea Malecki (left) and Josiane Nunes (right)

Terrence McKinney -105 vs Fares Ziam -125

The MMA community is feeling Terrence McKinney heavily tonight, and I have to agree. This will be his second fight in the UFC, and he won his debut by way of some good ol’ ground and pound. McKinney stays pretty active in the octagon, whereas his opponent tonight does not. Ziam hardly does enough to win by decision, so when it comes to fighting a guy like McKinney things are not in his favor. A lot of people like McKinney to win by KO, but as Ziam has hardly been finished in the UFC I’m taking Terrence McKinney ML straight and in my parlay.

Misha Cirkunov -130 vs Wellington Turman +108

These guys are both pretty mediocre for the Middleweight division, however Cirkunov is the better fighter. He has wins over guys like Jimmy Crute and Ion Cutelaba, and has shared the octagon with far better competition than Turman in general, such as Glover Texiera and Johnny Walker. I’m taking Misha Cirkunov ML straight, as I’m not confident enough in him to add him to my parlay.

Misha Cirkunov

Islam Makhachev -900 vs Bobby Green +610

This one almost feels too obvious. Bobby Green fought last week and barely took any damage against Nasrat Haqparast, and took this fight on short notice against what appears to be the second coming of Khabib Everyone else in the division turned the fight down, but Bobby, who has put on some of the most entertaining performances of the past year (watch his fight against Rafael Fiziev), is a true gangster. Because of the odds, and also because I like Bobby Green, I’m going to stake a little bit on him. However, it’s more likely than not that Islam will flex all of his wrestling muscles tonight and finish Bobby by way of submission. Currently, FanDuel has an odds boost for Islam Makhachev to win by submission round 1 or 2 at +250 that I absolutely love. Theres no shot that Islam out strikes Bobby on the feet, and Bobby won’t give in to ground and pound, so a TKO won’t happen. Islam also has majority of his UFC victories coming by way of submission, so I’m taking Islam Makhachev by way of submission at -115.

My Parlay

Josiane Nunes by KO/TKO +100

Terrence McKinney -105

Islam Makhachev by submission -115

Total Odds: +640

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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