UFC Vegas 32 (Sandhagen vs Dillashaw) Picks and Predictions
Last week, I gave you my four locks and a three leg parlay, all of which hit. Gonna do the same for tomorrow’s card. Three locks, all parlayed, and one risky-ish pick. There is most definitely an opportunity to stack more bread, so let’s do it.
Mickey Gall +145 vs Jordan Williams -175
Mickey Gall and Jordan Williams are both 30 years old, and a similar size, but the biggest difference between them is that Gall simply doesn’t have KO power, and Williams does. Jordan Williams is a grinder with a cardio advantage over Gall, as his fights on average last 5 minutes longer. Mickey Gall’s had a much longer layoff, hasn’t fought since June 2020 (over 1 year) whereas Williams fought back in October. The biggest and best reason to pick against Mickey Gall is that he’s lost to old guys, who were once good, but now stink like Mike Perry and Diego Sanchez. If you can’t beat a guy with one foot out the door, you can’t beat a guy your own age and more skilled, so I’m rolling with Jordan Williams here straight at -175 for my parlay.
Maycee Barber +125 vs Miranda Maverick -155
This is a fight to watch, these are two of the best up and coming young fighters in the UFC.
Miranda Maverick has been on fire lately! Both women are very similar in size and age, but Maycee Barber is far less skilled and technical than Maverick. Somehow, they both land a similar number of strikes and takedowns, with Maverick having a slight edge in the latter category. Maverick knows how to stay at range and use her reach advantage, whereas in Maycee Barber’s last fight, her idea of managing distance was shadowboxing from 6 feet away and expending her energy. All that was to say, Maycee is not as good at range, and throws aimless strikes. As stated, they’re both good at getting takedowns, but Maverick is much better at ground and pound when they get to the canvas. I see many paths to victory for Miranda Maverick, so I’ll be taking her here, straight and in my parlay.
Darren Elkins +125 vs Darrick Minner -155
Darrick Minner has a lot of experience in the UFC, and has beat a few solid fighters throughout his time there. Minner has good cardio, good striking, really good grappling and a high fight IQ. He typically looks for openings for submissions, usually after tiring his opponents out. He (somehow) has 100% takedown accuracy, and 85% of his wins have come via submission. I really like Minner to win this one by another late submission, and although lines for that haven’t been posted yet, as long as it’s not absurd I’ll be taking it. Also, taking Darrick Minner ML, straight and in my parlay.
Kyler Phillips -290 vs Raulian Paiva +220
There isn’t much to say about this one. Good parlay booster. Raulian Paiva took this one on short notice, is moving up to bantamweight for it, and probably doesn’t care as much about a win here because it doesn’t affect his overall career. Kyler Phillips is really good in all aspects of MMA, and Paiva just isn’t. Even at his proper weight class he’s lost by being smothered on the ground. Plus, as you move up in weight classes, guys hit harder. I’ll be taking Kyler Phillips for a KO, as well as adding him ML to my parlay.
Cory Sandhagen -180 vs TJ Dillashaw +155
I don’t advise you to take this pick unless you’re feeling ballsy. Everyone thinks Sandhagen has this one on lock, due to TJ’s suspension for EPO ending. Yeah, TJ might not be on PED’s anymore and had a long time off, but he also never lost the bantamweight belt. (By the way, there are A LOT more guys in the UFC taking PED’s, and haven’t been suspended.) He only had to surrender it because of the suspension, and he’s coming back for it. A win against Cory Sandhagen would automatically make him #1 contender, get a title shot, and I think TJ Dillashaw is ready for it. Sandhagen also really stinks at wrestling and TJ is poised to expose his deficiencies. TJ used to use Cory as a sparring partner and knows his tendencies. All of this is to say, I’m taking TJ straight here, but I’m not super confident in him, because Cory Sandhagen is still one of the toughest guys in the division. Feel free to tail though.
Jordan Williams -175
Miranda Maverick -155
Kyler Phillips -290
This comes out to a total of -247.
Like my picks? Hate em? Or more importantly, if I helped you stack some bread, let me know on Twitter @53keppi. Bet responsibly.