• Keith

UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs Volkov Picks and Predictions

Went 4-4 last week, only giving out my favorite picks. This week, I'm back with 4 more picks. The difference is, I'm going 4-0.



Prelim Lock

Julia Avila (-370) vs Julija Stoliarenko (+280)

This is a remake of a fight that was supposed to take place a few months ago, until Julija Stoliarenko went viral for passing out on the scale at weigh-ins. It was a really harsh weight cut for Stoliarenko the last time around, and they never get easier (until you move to a different weight class). Harsh weight cuts negatively impact a fighter's cardio, so odds are Stoliarenko will gas out. That spells trouble against a fighter like Julia Avila, who has a good gas tank, accurate hands, and solid technique. Avila also has a nice way of using body-head combos. Between her abilities, and Stoliarenko's bad weight cut, I'll add Julia Avila to my parlay at -370.



Main Card Picks

Tim Means (-130) vs Nicolas Dalby (+100)

Compared to Nicolas Dalby, Tim Means is a great boxer. Dalby doesn't throw nearly as much volume and is not as aggressive as Means does. Dalby throws primarily big looping punches that leave him vulnerable for straight jabs on the chin, and looks wobbly even before he's hit. Tim Means also has a solid submission game, and if this fight goes to the canvas he is sure to use it. I'll be taking Tim Means straight at -130, as well as sliding him into my parlay.


Andre Fili (-230) vs Daniel Pineda (+180)

Fili is the bigger man here in all aspects including height and reach. He's got great defense to leg kicks which Pineda relies on heavily. We've seen what can happen when a fighter checks a leg kick perfectly. Pineda also had to cut a lot of weight for this fight, which we know negatively affects cardio. He already has a history of gassing out, and then continuing to try to put pressure on opponents, tiring him out even more. Fili consistently tires opponents out, exposes their low stamina, and gets the win. I have Andre Fili to do it again tonight in my parlay at -230.


Ciryl Gane (-155) vs Alexander Volkov (+130)

For starters, Ciryl Gane has a 2 inch reach advantage against his opponent Volkov, who is tactually wo inches taller than Gane, making him the tallest heavyweight. Gane coming out aggressive after the lackluster performance against Rozenstruik, just as Rozenstruik did against Sakai. Rozenstruik is a killer and even he was afraid to approach Gane. Volkov will pursue more than Rozenstruik did, but Gane is an incredible counterpuncher. Volkov has great footwork for a heavyweight, who are mostly stationary standing targets, but Gane has better footwork than Volkov’s previous opponents. Gane loves the leg kicks which could limit Volkov’s movement. Gane is 31, 8-0 and with his incredible cardio, I can see him ending tonight still lossless. I like Gane straight up at -155, as well as the fight to go the distance.



My Parlay

Julia Avila -370

Tim Means -130

Andre Fili -230

Comes out to +222


Like my picks? Hate em? Or more importantly, if I helped you stack some bread, let me know on Twitter @53keppi. Bet responsibly.

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