• Keith

UFC UK Fight Night Betting Guide

I’m the dunce that forgot the prelims start at 1 pm today. Hopefully you’re reading this with enough time to get your picks in.

Jack Shore -116 vs Timur Valiev -102

Jack Shore‘s opening lines for this card were as an underdog at +100. Lots of people bet Shore as the days went on, and with good reason. He’s 15-0 professionally and Timur Valiev has been beaten by lesser competition. Jack Shore is still a really high value pick at -116, so I’m rolling with him here for 1u.

Nikita Krylov -185 vs Paul Craig +154

When I see Paul Craig’s name come across the screen, I can’t help but want to bet a bit on him. Every single one of his wins has come by way of finish, whether it be chokes, KO’s, or in the case of Jamahal Hill, pulling limbs apart. Craig is on a 4 fight win streak and his win against Jamahal Hill is beginning to look particularly good after Hill slept Johnny Walker. Krylov is another great light heavyweight that’s been in with some fantastic competition at the top of the division, but he’s currently 2-3 in his last five fights. Paul Craig needs a stepping stone to continue moving up this division, and it could quite possibly be Nikita Krylov. With that being said, 1u on Paul Craig’s moneyline, while sprinkling just a bit on him to win by submission.

Luana Carolina +124 vs Molly McCann -146

Some fighters experience immense amounts of pressure when fighting in front of the home crowd. Molly McCann is one of the fighters on this card that is truly from England- Liverpool to be exact- and the hometown pressure will be there. The more tangible reasons I’m betting against McCann today: she relies very heavily on her great BJJ skills, however Luana Carolina last fought Loopy Godinez and was able to stuff a lot of her takedowns and win by UD. Luana Carolina has a 7 inch reach advantage over McCann and already manages distance well with women closer to her in size. McCann surely is entertaining and has name recognition, which is probably why she’s a slight favorite in this one, but she hasn’t done anything in the UFC yet to make me think she wins this matchup. Sticking with Luana Carolina ML in this one, as well as sprinkling a bit on her to win by decision at +195.

Paddy Pimblett -590 vs Rodrigo Vargas +440

I can’t say much about Paddy the Baddy that hasn’t already been said. I don’t think Rodrigo Vargas will be that big of a challenge for him, so I’m taking Paddy Pimblett to win by submission at +175, as well as a double chance bet to win by submission or KO/TKO at -210.


I will not be touching the Arnold Allen/Dan Hooker fight. That is way too hard to pick.

Tom Aspinall -126 vs Alexander Volkov +108

Volkov has been the ultimate gatekeeper over the past few years. Almost anyone that’s wanted to take a shot at the heavyweight title has had to go through him. I think Aspinall will rise to the challenge today and potentially knock Volkov out, as he’s got really powerful hands and can intelligently attack with a barrage of strikes, while Volkov will try to do his best to maintain distance and pick Aspinall apart. I’m going with Aspinall here to get it done in front of the home crowd at -126 as well as Aspinall to win by KO at +200.


Parlays

The safer parlay:

Jack Shore -116

Luana Carolina +124

Paddy Pimblett by submission or KO/TKO (double chance) -210

Total Odds: +515


The risky parlay:

Paul Craig by submission +360

Paddy Pimblett by submission +175

Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO +200

Total Odds: +3695

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Bet responsibly.



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