• Keith

UFC London: Betting Picks and Predictions

I know, it’s been a minute, but I’m back with my favorite picks for tomorrows card in London. Card starts at noon ET. For a full comprehensive breakdown of the card, check out this weeks episode of Pickin Fights on YouTube:



And on Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1Y0UrxOkVBBrN3WO1uMGRp?si=D-P__ORbR4mRD9y6dBoIkQ

Prelim Parlay

Jai Herbert -290

Muhammad Mokaev -500

Marc Diakiese -375

Mason Jones -385

All pretty heavy favorites but easy money across the board. Totals out to +157. 5u bet.


Paul Craig +125 vs Volkan Oezdemir -155

Paul Craig has some of the best offensive jiu jitsu off his back. He tends to get dropped, bait his opponents into his guard, and lock up wild submissions that typically injure his opponents. He’s not too bad on his feet either, and when is winning while standing he tends to go for a double leg takedown and submit them from the top. Serious submission game from Paul Craig. Just look at what he did to Jamahal Hill:



Taking Paul Craig ML at +125 in my parlay and to win by submission at +200 for 3u. I feel very good about this guy.


Hannah Goldy +320 vs Molly McCann -430

Molly McCann has this fight in the bag. She thrives in front of the home crowd. You may remember her spinning elbow KO over Luana Carolina on the last London card:




The most likely outcome is Molly McCann by decision at -130 for 2u. However, Hannah Goldy has a very weak ground game, and Meatball trains with a great BJJ practitioner in Paddy Pimblett. There is a very tantalizing line in this fight: Molly McCann by submission at +1100 for .5 u. Is it unlikely? Sure. But I like the line.


Jordan Leavitt +210 vs Paddy Pimblett -265

Every UFC fan will tell you that they are skeptical of Paddy the Baddy’s true abilities at this stage in his career. He’s untested thus far, has gotten rocked in his two fights in the promotion thus far, and won via submission against guys with no real ground game to speak of. Sure, he’s really good at jiu jitsu. But so is his opponent tomorrow, Jordan Leavitt. He’s a legitimate test for Paddy. Paddy is another guy who thrives in front of the home fans, and if it comes down to a decision, he will get the home judge advantage. Can’t see him knocking Leavitt out or locking up a submission, so I like Paddy Pimblett by decision at +380 for 1u. However, being that “The Monkey King” could get it done against Paddy as well, it wouldn’t be a mistake to take Jordan Leavitt ML at +210 for 1u. Plus, if Jordan Leavitt wins he’s going to twerk all over Paddy, and the UK fans are sure to riot.



Chris Curtis -115 vs Jack Hermansson-105

If you’ve been following us for a while, you know I’m a big fan of Chris Curtis. He’s got heavy hands with serious knockout power. He’s won all of his UFC fights thus far and is blasting his way through the middleweight division. He’s also got incredible takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Rodolfo Vieira, which benefits him in a matchup against a wrestler like Hermansson. His training partner Sean Strickland also beat Jack Hermansson to a decision. After Hermansson realized he couldn’t take Strickland down he chose to strike with him, and while Strickland doesn’t have serious power, Curtis does. If Jack chooses to try to bang with Curtis, it’s lights out. Chris Curtis ML at -115 for 3 u and Chris Curtis by KO/TKO at +220 for 1.5u. He’s got a killer counter right hook out of southpaw.



Curtis Blaydes +115 vs Tom Aspinall -140

Tom Aspinall can do it all. He’s knocked down every test the UFC has put in front of him. Blaydes is the first real wrestler he’s faced thus far, but judging by his last few fights, Blaydes has been choosing to stand and bang. Big mistake if he does against Aspinall. Tom’s got some of the heavier hands in the heavyweight division. He’s also got a really good ground game if Blaydes does choose to wrestle. We’ve seen him take guys like Andre Arlovski down and strangle them:



And Alexander Volkov:




While those weren’t off his back, it’s clear that Tom has jiu jitsu in his arsenal. If Blaydes tries to play to his strengths, Tom still has an answer for him. I’m riding with Tom Aspinall at -140 for 3u.


Parlays

The Safer

Paul Craig +125

Molly McCann -430

Chris Curtis -115

Tom Aspinall -140

Total Odds: +788


The Riskier

Paul Craig by submission +200

Molly McCann by decision -130

Paddy Pimblett by decision +380

Chris Curtis -115

Total Odds: +4663


Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible

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