UFC Fight Night - Lemos vs Andrade: Picks and Predictions
We got a super mid fight card this week with a few potential bangers snuck in. Fortunately, there are plenty of opportunities for fans and bettors to win.
While you’re here, check out this weeks episode of Pickin’ Fights.
Dean Barry -1200 vs Mike Jackson +750
Opening up this card with some pretty lopsided lines are newcomer Dean Barry and part-time fighter Mike Jackson. Dean Barry is another new kid from Ireland with a pretty impressive kickboxing highlight reel. He’s also got 5 professional MMA fights, didn’t just fight cans like a lot of guys trying to make their way to the UFC, and is 4-1 going into his debut. He’s also been pretty active leading up to tonight, as his last fight was back in December and he fought a few times throughout 2019-2020. Comparatively, Mike Jackson has not fought since 2018. That last fight was a win, since overturned, against CM Punk. He couldnt finish Punk, despite plenty of opportunities to do so. Between his nearly 4 year break from fighting, pitiful striking offense and defense, and weak ground game, I expect a massive Dean Barry highlight reel win. There is no way this isn’t a setup fight. Sorry Mike Jackson, but I’m going with Dean Barry to win by KO/TKO at -150, as well as Dean Barry to win by KO/TKO in round 1 at +155. I could totally see a UFC 4 video game style flash KO headkick happening tonight.
Jordan Wright +160 vs Marc-Andre Barriault -190
Both of these men have been in wars, and have the ability to sleep one another. Heavy handed head hunters. The thing that stands out to me the most is 2 months ago Marc-Andre Barriault was knocked out in the first round by Chidi Njokuani. Why he’s stepping into the octagon again so quickly is a mystery, but there’s not shot his chin has fully recovered. I’m taking Jordan Wright to win by KO/TKO at +380.
Charles Jourdain -120 vs Lando Vannata +102
Just like the last fight I spoke about, these are two head hunting guys with powerful striking. This fight will certainly be an all out war in which both men use a multitude of combinations and entertaining spinning strikes, especially Lando Vannata. One thing I’ve noticed while watching film though is that those strikes seem to tire Vannata a bit more. Jourdain has a better gas tank and is better at managing it, and the longer this fight goes, the more it favors Jourdain, so I’m taking Charles Jourdain ML at -120.
Alexandr Romanov -1500 vs Chase Sherman +870
Romanov is coming into this one in the sickest shape of his life. He went from a husky heavyweight to absolutely shredded. Chase Sherman took this on short notice. Being that Sherman has losses by submission, and Romanov has wins via sub and overall solid jiu jitsu, I’ll be taking Alexandr Romanov by submission in an attempt to sweeten the odds.
Maycee Barber -190 vs Montana DeLaRosa +160
Anyone who’s been following my blogs here or watching Pickin Fights knows I’m pretty good at picking womens fights. I really like Montana DeLaRosa here. I’ve been a fan of hers for a while, and Maycee Barber doesn’t impress me at all. Montana has just good enough striking to maintain favorable distance on her feet against Barber, and the slight reach advantage here should help her. Especially because, much like the Karate Hottie Michelle Waterson, so many of Barber’s strikes are thrown at the air. While Barber throws those haphazard strikes with her hips exposed, I expect Montana DeLaRosa to take her down and flex all her wrestling muscles to keep her down. Barber does do some things well, like clinch against the cage and use elbows, but I think trying to clinch Montana would be a mistake because of her ability to reverse and create takedowns, hold Barber by her seatbelt, and keep top control in scrambles. I like Montana DeLaRosa to win by decision at +250. Not to mention, Barber’s last win against Miranda Maverick was a split decision robbery, and she also has a loss to Roxanne Modafferi so I can never bet on her again. Hold me to it!
Claudio Puelles -106 vs Clay Guida -110
Who doesn’t love Clay Guida? Claudio Puelles certainly won’t after tonight. Puelles is somewhat new, whereas Clay Guida is a veteran of the UFC. He’s another one of these old guys that’s seeing a bit of a career resurgence right now. Puelles’ strong suit is grappling and submissions but Guida has great wrestling as well as phenomenal submission defense. Guida also pushes an insane pace I that Puelles, as a newer guy just isn’t ready for. Once Puelles can’t lock anything up on the ground, he’s going to get desperate on his feet. I expect him to do somewhat well in round 1, get nervous going into round 2 and then outclassed for the final 10 minutes of the fight, so I’m taking Clay Guida ML at -110.
Safer Parlay Dean Barry by KO/TKO -150
Wright/Barriault to end in KO/TKO -145
Clay Guida -110
Total Odds: +437
Dean Barry by KO/TKO in Round 1 +155
Jordan Wright by KO/TKO +380
Montana DeLaRosa by Decision +250
Total Odds: +4184
Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Bet responsibly.