UFC Fight Night - Blaydes vs Daukaus Betting Guide
The UFC is back to doing location based fight nights, which is exciting. Last week England, this week in Columbus.
Tonight’s card has been catching a lot of hate online, but it’s much better than the haters would have you believe.
Plus, there’s some juicy lines, so let’s dive in.
Mark Diakese +134 vs Viacheslav Borschev -158
Viacheslav Borschev, AKA Slava Claus, is one of my favorite new fighters on the roster. He’s got the talent and the personality to be a future star in the lightweight division. He was so impressive in his last fight, which was his UFC debut, against Dakota Bush. Borschev was a kickboxing champ before making his way to the UFC and showed exactly why, TKO’ing Bush in round 1 with a perfect punch to the liver. What makes it even more impressive is that Dakota Bush has a wrestling background, attempted a few takedowns and Slava Claus defended them all well. Diakese isn’t really a guy to threaten with takedowns and is much more of a standup striker, which should allow Borschev to focus entirely on his kickboxing, unlike the Bush fight. Diakese will be another stepping stone for Slava Claus, which is why I’m taking Viacheslav Borschev -158 in my parlay. Due to his kickboxing abilities and lethal combinations, I’m also taking Viacheslav Borschev by KO/TKO at +125. That is my absolute favorite pick of the day, the line is extremely tantalizing.
Askar Askarov -420 vs Kai Kara France +330
Call me crazy, call me biased, but I have Kai Kara France in this one. He’s so well rounded, can Defend takedowns, and has great defensive grappling. Those factors will negate Askarov’s gameplan to take KKF down and smother him. Plus KKF’s hands are so heavy. It’s not really an amazing feat to KO Cody Garbrandt these days but the fashion in which he did it was impressive. He trains with one of the best teams in the world at City Kickboxing, which is actually home to two current champs, Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski. If Kai Kara France beats Askarov tonight, it puts him in contention to be a potential third. If he can stuff the first few takedowns off get up quickly if taken down, Askarov will become desperate and leave his chin open for KKF’s heavy shots. Vegas oddsmakers are really hung up on guys with wrestling advantages, which is why the odds are so lopsided here. There is obviously a massive chance Askarov wins this one due to that advantage but I’m willing to stake some on KKF’s ability to negate that advantage. I’m taking Kai Kara France +330 in hopes that he can keep this fight standing up, and just as an added bonus, sprinkle a little on KKF by KO at +750.
Matt Brown -110 vs Bryan Barbarena -110
This is a very well made fight, as even as it gets skill wise, as the lines would indicate. Matt Brown has all the intangibles here, as he’s an old man for the sport, over 40 years old, with a lot to prove. He‘s had a few upsets over his last few fights and is becoming a hardcore fan favorite. Casuals aren’t super familiar with him but they should be because what he’s doing at his age is highly impressive. A slightly biased pick in a coin flip of a fight, I’m going with Matt Brown -110. As both of these men have been KO’d before and have the ability give it back, I’m also taking a smart pick here: Fight to end by KO/TKO at -140.
Alexa Grasso -270 vs Joanne Wood +220
Joanne Wood FKA Joanne Calderwood was once in title contention. She had her last shot to fight for the belt barring a victory against Lauren Murphy. Murphy won, so she got the shot against Valentina Shevchenko. Wood was already on a bit of a skid at that point. Since then, Wood has gotten married and her octagon activity has slowed down. Alexa Grasso has more promise in the cage, and much more longevity going forward, especially because shes nearly 10 years Wood’s junior. She also doesn’t get finished much, whereas in her last few fights, Wood has gotten caught in submissions and tapped easily. I think tonight may be the last time we actually see Joanne Wood in the octagon, after Alexa Grasso beats her. I’m adding Alexa Grasso -270 to my parlay.
Curtis Blaydes -460 vs Chris Daukaus +360
These odds are so lopsided because of Curtis Blaydes’s wrestling abilities. It’s interesting because Chris Daukaus is actually a BJJ black belt and comes from a family of grapplers- just look at his brother Kyle in the middleweight division, winning by dominant decisions and submissions. This is another pick where I may look crazy, but I like Chris Daukaus to win this one. BJJ can be anti-wresting if used correctly, so Chris Daukaus could potentially negate Blaydes’s wrestling. Additionally, Blaydes telegraphs some of his takedowns, especially as the fight goes on. Look at his fight’s against Derrick Lewis and Jarzhino Rozenstruik for example. He was completely slept in the former while attempting a takedown on Lewis, and came out with a win in the latter but it was a hard fought battle. Daukaus has the hands to give Blaydes an incredibly hard night standing, and if Blaydes does make his takedowns obvious expect Daukaus to at least be intelligent enough to defend them. He will spend time on his back tonight in full guard for sure and it will be a scary one for Daukaus bettors, however I still have faith in him to get it done one way or another, so I’m taking Chris Daukaus +360.
Viacheslav Borschev -158
Matt Brown vs Bryan Barbarena to end in KO/TKO -140
Alexa Grasso -270
Total Odds: +283
Viacheslav Borschev by KO/TKO +125
Kai Kara France +330
Matt Brown -110
Total Odds: +1763
Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.