• Keith

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs Rakic Betting Picks

It's hard not to like Jan Blachowicz, even after he lost his LHW belt to a senior citizen in his last fight. Rakic has been waiting to fight him for a while, and tonight the two finally meet in the octagon, in a bout that will most likely determine who's next for a title shot. The rest of the card is solid, provides some decent monetary and entertainment value, so here are my favorite picks.


First, a parlay.

If you've been tailing the last few weeks, then you're aware of a new easy strategy Tom and I have been following: pick a few women's fights that are likely to go the distance, and parlay them to do so. Here are those fights on this card:

Hill vs Jandiroba to go the distance: -190

Lee vs Araujo to go the distance: -280

Ribas vs Chookagian to go the distance: -225

Total odds: +199


Simply put, none of these women are really killers that possess the necessary skills to finish their opponents tonight, and +199 is not a bad line for a three legger that you can feel really good about.


Nick Maximov -360 vs Andrew Petroski +290

Maximov is the best of Nate Diaz's students, and fights similarly to him in a few ways: awkward on his feet, not super strong or powerful, keeps walking forward, and has good jiu jitsu. The biggest thing that separates them is Maximov's takedown abilities. He has no qualms about ripping a quick single leg and controlling his opponent from top, which is probably how tonight's fight will turn out. I think -360 is really steep, but I like Maximov by decision at +125.



Andrea Lee -120 vs Viviane Araujo +100

Andrea KGB Lee was one of the highly touted Invicta FC signings when she crossed over to the UFC, and Invicta has produced some great female fighters. Lee and Viviane Araujo do some things very similarly, especially on the feet. Andrea Lee has a slight edge though, and thats because she uses kicks well. Araujo is more of a boxer, whereas Andrea Lee uses a lot of front kicks, leg kicks, and body roundhouse kicks to gain favor on the judges scorecards as well as drain her opponent's cardio. She also clinches when she needs to and throws strikes well there, as well as achieving body lock takedowns. I expect this fight to end with Andrea "KGB" Lee winning this one by a 30-27 decision on the cards, so I'm taking Andrea Lee by decision at +145.



Jake Hadley -210 vs Allan Nascimento +176

This one is a bit more of a reach, so I won't be adding it to any parlays, but there is great value here. Jake Hadley is making his UFC debut, and while he's certainly good, our friend Enfuego from twitter has pointed out that UFC fighters making their debut in 2022 have not had the best track record thus far. Allan Nascimento is also a product of Chute Box, where he trains with Charles Oliviera. He does some of the same things well that Charles does, and should he stick to a similar gameplan, this is his fight. With that being said, I'll be taking Allan Nascimento moneyline at +176. This is by no means a lock, as Jake Hadley traveled the world to find worthy competition before he made his jump to the UFC, but stats are stats.


Frank Camacho +112 vs Manuel Torres -132

Frank Camacho's chin is so weak and he's coming off a log layoff. Manuel Torres is a fast starter with solid hands. It'll be really tough for Camacho to find his bearings early in the fight and Torres will take full advantage of that, knocking Camacho's head off very quickly. Manuel Torres by knockout at +230.


Louis Smolka +245 vs Davey Grant -300

Louis Smolka also has a really weak chin and bad submission defense. Davey Grant is a guy that can get it done tonight in a multitude of ways, so I'll be adding his ML to my parlay, but I'm also taking Grant straight to win by decision at +380, simply because his last few fights have been going the distance and he hasn't put the skill set on full display, taking fewer risks in fights but losing by decision.


My Parlays

Safer Parlay

Nick Maximov ML -360

Hill vs Jandiroba to go the distance: -190

Lee vs Araujo to go the distance: -280

Ribas vs Chookagian to go the distance: -225

Davey Grant ML -300

Total Odds: +409


Riskier Parlay

Nick Maximov by decision +125

Andrea Lee by decision +145

Manuel Torres by knockout +230

Davey Grant by decision +380

Total Odds: +8631


Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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