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  • Keith

UFC 276 Betting Guide

Hope you’re enjoying the holiday weekend. On paper, tonight’s card looks to be one of the best of the year. These are my favorite picks from the main card and prelims.

Jessica Eye +240 vs Maycee Barber -300

This is an easy, quintessential parlay leg for tonight’s card. Eye and Barber tend to go the distance in almost all of their fights. Not a lot of power or finishing ability between the two. Eye vs Barber to go the distance at -250.

Brad Tavares +130 vs Dricus Du Plessis -155

These lines have moved quite a bit since the fight was first announced. If you watched this weeks episode of Pickin Fights way back on Monday, you’d know I was going with DDP when he was a +100 underdog. I staked my bet on him then because I knew that line would move. The sharps love DDP. He’s young, strong, and very athletic. He’s got a good chin and fought over at KSW pre-UFC where steroids are legal, and while he hasn’t tested positive for them his opponents did; he ate plenty of their punches. He’s got a really nasty counter left hook that puts guys to bed. At -155 I still feel really good about DDP’s ML and will be adding him to one of my parlays. I think DDP has the ability to put Tavares to bed in stunning fashion and continue his winning streak, so I’ll also be taking DDP to win by KO/TKO at +195.

Cowboy Cerrone +160 vs Jim Miller -190

We all know Cowboy is in the twilight of his career, coming very close to the end. He’s been in camp for like 3 months straight after two cancelled bouts with Joe Lauzon. He’s lost his last 5, whereas Jim Miller 3-2 over his last 5. Cowboy has fought the better competition, but he’s old and fragile now. My sneaky pick for this one is Jim Miller to win by submission at +340. He’s got great jiu jitsu and I could see him backing Cowboy to the cage, hitting him with a barrage of strikes, landing a takedown, and choking Cowboy out. In Cowboy’s last few fights, putting his back against the cage is the best strategy for victory.

Pedro Munhoz +250 vs Sean O’Malley -300

Every sportsbook has a boost on Sean O’Malley to win by KO tonight. Those are usually traps to get more casual fans to dump money on a name they know. He said it himself- don’t be surprised if this fight goes a full 15 minutes. Munhoz is the biggest test for Sean O’Malley to date. He’s got a solid chin and in his last bout, ate an insane amount of Jose Aldo’s lightning fast hooks. Sean O’Malley will win, but I don’t think he’ll put Pedro to sleep the way he has previous opponents. Munhoz was at one time a high level bantamweight, despite being 4-1 over his last 5. I like Sean O’Malley to win by decision at +175. Don’t expect Sean to do a bunch of dribbling moves the way he did against Khris Moutinho.

Alex Perriera +105 vs Sean Strickland -125

Make no mistake, Alex Perriera is an incredible striker. We all know he beat Izzy twice in kickboxing. Sean Strickland also has good striking, but is stylistically different in a way that doesn’t match well against Alex. He said it himself at Thursday’s presser that Alex was the best striker on stage. Sean Strickland would have to be crazy (which, he very well may be) to not take Alex Perriera to the ground. He trains a lot of jiu jitsu- I could see him exposing the kickboxer’s ground game- or lack thereof. We’ve been hearing rumblings of Strickland’s nasty jiu jitsu but he hasn’t had to use it yet. I like Strickland’s ML at -125- very solid line. However there is a sneaky pick in this fight. I’m taking Sean Strickland to win by submission at +950. Very big payout if it hits, and I think it’s far more likely than a Strickland KO victory. I hope he wins for my wallet, for the wild post fight interview, and for the potential Izzy/Strickland fight in the future, because Sean seems to get under Adesanya’s skin.

Max Holloway +170 vs Alexander Volkanovski -200

Volk is on his way to GOAT status. A third and final win over Blessed will put him there. I genuinely believe thats in the cards for him tonight. The last two fights were close, but Volk has gotten better since then. He’s been by far the most active champion in the UFC. He’s got the best combinations in the featherweight division and ends almost every single one with a sneaky leg kick. On the flip side, Max threw a lot of naked leg kicks in his last two fights against Kattar and Rodriguez. If he does that tonight, he’ll leave his face open for a multitude of strikes from Volk. Additionally, Volk didn’t use much ground game against Holloway in their previous two scraps. He should go into this one planning to scoop Max like a rugby tackle and out wrestle him. There’s no danger of a Max submission there because of Ortega couldn’t sub Volk neither can he. I’m going with Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision at +125. Bald Volk is a bad man.

Jared Cannonier +370 vs Israel Adesanya -490

There’s two picks I like here: the first is Israel Adesanya to win by decision at +125. He doesn’t have the power to put down Cannonier and will more than likely stand at a distance and leg kick all night. Then, there’s Jared Cannonier by KO/TKO at +600. Call me crazy, but Cannonier is wildly strong, can close the distance and land bombs on Izzy. Sure, it’s outlandish and unlikely but not impossible. He did look unconfident at the press conference, which doesnt make me feel great about the pick, however what does is actually Izzy’s title run. As a bettor, it feels like Izzy is due for a loss.


The Safer

Eye/Barber to go the distance -250

O’Malley ML -300

Miller ML -190

Total Odds: +185

The Riskier

O’Malley by decision +175

Strickland ML -125

Volkanovski by decision +125

Adesanya by decision +125

Total Odds: +2405

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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