UFC 275 Betting Guide

Early PPV card tonight coming live from Singapore. The UFC stacked this one up with Asian fighters, fighters who fought for big promotions in Asia before signing to the UFC, and Aussie fighters. Really smart marketing move from the UFC to try to grow their fan base on that side of the world. I’m here to hit you with my favorite picks for this card, but for in-depth discussion, check out this week’s episode of Pickin Fights.

Jack Della Maddalena -160 vs Ramazan Emeev +135

Jack Della Maddalena has a few advantages coming into this fight. He’s from Australia, so the trip to Singapore is a quick flight to a similar time zone; he didnt need to acclimate as if he was traveling to Vegas. He’s on a massive win streak and is 10 years younger than Emeev. Jack has great defensive grappling, escaping scrambles and getting out of bad positions on the ground, which will benefit him in this matchup against one of the weaker Dagestani wrestlers. Jack is a fast starter as opposed to Emeev, who takes a bit of time to get to work in a fight. For all those reasons, I’m taking Jack Della Maddalena at -160.

Jake Matthews +125 vs Andre Fiahlo -145

Andre Fiahlo is Mr. Activity. This fight will be his fourth in a year, and is coming in on a two win streak over really solid competition, including Miguel Baeza. He also had a great performance in a loss to Michel Perriera. Fiahlo has ridiculous power and likes to throw heavy shots in the pocket. He really specializes in boxing and uses it well, whereas Matthews doesn’t have any one particular area of expertise. In order to beat Fiahlo, a fighter must specialize in some discipline, otherwise he will exploit their weaknesses on the feet. Matthews also isn’t as powerful as Fiahlo and can be a bit chinny at times. Fiahlo typically baits the opposition into partaking in a standup war, and if he does so tonight, Matthews will be sleeping on the canvas. Andre Fiahlo by knockout at +125 is the pick for this fight.

Weili Zhang -165 vs Joanna Jędrzejczyk +140

This is a rematch of a fight that took place two years ago and was potentially the best women’s MMA fight of all time. You may remember Joanna leaving the fight looking like there was a watermelon growing from her forehead:

Before and after.

Joanna hasn’t fought since their last meeting, and Weili has been very active, fighting for the title twice against Rose Namajunas. Joanna has been off traveling the world, modeling bikinis and posting thirst traps, whereas Weili Zhang moved gyms to Fight Ready in Arizona with Henry Cejudo and has been training harder than ever. Weili also added grappling to her repertoire in preparation for Rose. Their previous matchup was a five round fight, and while Weili won it was competitive. This being a three rounder benefits Weili heavily, as shes got power in her hands but she manages stamina by not throwing her strongest shots. In a three round bout, I expect her to unload on Joanna. Joanna’s chin is solid, but the judges won’t be able to score it for her after the damage Weili does. Weili Zhang to win by points at +150.

Valentina Schevchenko -750 vs Talia Santos +490

Theres really not much to say about this one, except that sprinkling the slightest bit on a major upset can be fun, if you can afford it, despite the fact that Valentina will win this one, dominantly.

Glover Texiera +170 vs Jiří Procházka -200

There are two ways this fight goes: either Glover takes Jiri to the ground and chokes him out, or Jiri lands a whopping uppercut on Glover and puts his lights out. Jiri is one of the most electrifying standup fighters in the game currently, but Glovers jiu jitsu is also incredible. This will be a great fight. Personally I’m going with Jiří Procházka to win by knockout at -125. A really smart parlay leg I’ll be adding from this fight will be for it to NOT go the distance.

Parlays

Smarter Parlay

Jack Della Maddalena -160

Andre Fiahlo -145

Zhang/Jędrzejczyk to go the distance -220

Valentina Schevchenko -750

Glover/Procházka to not go the distance -600

Total Odds: +427

Lets spice things up a bit with the next one.

Riskier Parlay

Andre Fiahlo by KO/TKO +125

Jack Della Maddalena -160

Zhang Weili by points +150

Jiří Procházka by KO/TKO -125

Total Odds: +1537

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.