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  • Keith

UFC 274: Betting Guide

What would a major UFC PPV be without a bit of drama? We've got plenty of it heading into 274, which was already a card that gave us a lot to look forward to. Thats due to potential bangers, as well as a multitude of opportunities to stack some bread.

Prelim Parlay

You read that correctly. Going to follow Tom's new betting strategy this week for the prelims and take three women's fights to go the distance. This parlay feels extremely safe and puts us in a position to start the day in the green. This is an easy 3u bet.

Ariane Carnelossi vs Lupita Godinez: Fight to go the distance -205

Melissa Gatto vs Tracy Cortez: Fight to go the distance -205

Macy Chiasson vs Norma Dumont: Fight to go the distance -186

Total Odds: +240

Main Card Picks

Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone -174 vs Joe Lauzon +146

Two old guys will be clashing tonight. Cowboy, a longtime true fan favorite pon a osing streak, who rose to casual fan fame (I'm looking at you, Stephen A Smith) when he lost to Conor McGregor, goes up against Joe Lauzon, another vet who hasn't fought in two years. Cowboy's recent activity really speaks to me here, though. He hasn't won in a while but he does continue to make the walk into the octagon against whoever the UFC sees fit. For years, retirement has been in talks for Cowboy, and he's wanted to go out on a win, but Dana White recently said if he loses he's gone regardless. Expect to see Cowboy in full form tonight against an opponent shaking off some ring rust. Cowboy ML at -174 is a great pick, and you'll definitely see it in at least one of my parlays, but I'll also be taking Donald Cerrone by decision at +340 because I expect him to be a bit cautious tonight, not overly risky, but he also doesn't hold some of the power he used to in his youth.

Michael Chandler -390 vs Tony Ferguson +310

Anyone who's been following me for a while is aware that I'm a massive fan of two fighters on this card: Iron Mike Chandler and Thug Rose Namajunas, so when this card was announced I was practically salivating. Mike Chandler and Tony Ferguson have been on losing streaks lately, and while the quality of opponent has been high for both men, I’d give Chandler the nod for better performances over his last few. His 2 fight losing streak has come at the hands of Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje, and while those are also two names on Tony Ferguson’s losing resume, Chandler looked far better. At both of these guys current stages in their career Chandler has far more upside. He’s a better wrestler with explosive hips that helped him get out of bad positions against Charles and really powerful hands that wobbled Gaethje a few times in their meeting. At this point, Tony’s best attribute is what it always has been: his toughness; his other qualities are starting to fall behind. Chandler said that after the Gaethje fight, in which he expended a lot of his energy, he plans to fight more conservatively and intelligently. An intelligent Michael Chandler is a successful Michael Chandler. This isn’t even a bias pick; just looking at the lines, Vegas is also on the Chandler train. Due to this fight only being 3 rounds and Tony’s toughness and ability to just tell himself not to go to sleep, combined with a more conservative Chandler at the behest of Henry Hooft, I am taking Michael Chandler to win by decision at +250.

Rose Namajunas -220 vs Carla Esparza +185

Like I stated before, I am a massive Thug Rose fan. She is the definition of a bad bitch. This is a rematch of a fight that took place over half a decade ago for the first womens strawweight title, in which Carla won. One thing to keep an eye on though: Rose Namajunas is 5-0 in rematches. Every since pairing up with coach Trevor Wittman, Rose’s striking has improved leaps and bounds and she enters each fight with a well designed game plan. There is an argument to be made that Carla can win this one with her wrestling, but I believe Rose is prepared for it, as an astute practitioner of jiu jitsu with an ability to use reversals on the ground. She has wins over massive names in the division such as Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson, and Weili Zhang. Rose is the more complete fighter in this matchup in this point in their careers, but Carla will keep things extremely competitive and the fight will end in a close decision, which is why I’m taking Rose Namajunas by points at +165. At least there could still be one “And Still” by the end of this night.

Charles Oliveira -144 vs Justin Gaethje +122

This is an extremely tantalizing matchup, seeded with drama from the jump that was elevated after Charles Oliveira allegedly missed weight yesterday. There are many arguments to be made about the legitimacy behind that, and the UFC’s decision to strip his title going into the fight, but that’s not what we’re here to talk about. Gaethje has heavy hands and intelligent combinations that he sets up well, and a majority of his wins coming via knockout. Charles has good striking that makes use of his length, as well as incredible jiu jitsu, boasting the most submission wins in history. This fight ends one of two ways: an early knockout for Justin or a later submission for Charles, and I’m willing to take the latter. We’ve seen Charles stand with great strikers, such as Dustin Poirier in his last fight, survive their barrage of attacks, tire them out with grappling and then exploit their weak submission defense. I expect a similar outcome tonight, with Charles using a lot of front kicks to keep Justin at range and then bring him to the ground; Justin recently spoke about how Charles and other fighters such as Colby Covington could very well beat him if they go to the canvas.My favorite bet of the night is My favorite bet of the night is Charles Oliveira to win by submission in rounds 3 or 4 at +750. I also like Charles Oliveira to win by submission at +160. I can see him locking up an armbar on Justin Gaethje and not being as merciful as Khabib, snapping it right in half.

In case you forgot, I’ve got a pretty good track record when it comes to calling Charles Oliviera fights.

My Parlays

Besides the one I stated earlier, I’ve got a few other parlays I like. My Favorite Parlay

Ariane Carnelossi vs Lupita Godinez: Fight to go the distance -205

Melissa Gatto vs Tracy Cortez: Fight to go the distance -205

Norma Dumont to win by decision +110

Michael Chandler by decision +250

Rose Namajunas by decision +165

Charles Oliviera by submission in rounds 2, 3 or 4 +350

Total Odds: +19301

Safer Parlay

Michael Chandler ML -390

Rose Namajunas ML -220

Charles Oliviera by submission +160

CANELO ALVAREZ by decision/points -140

Total Odds: +691

Slight Risk Parlay

Michael Chandler by KO +110

Rose Namajunas by points +180

Charles Oliveira by submission +160

CANELO ALVAREZ to win by points/decision -140

Total Odds: +2520

The ”Fade Keith” Parlay (higher risk)

Tony Ferguson ML +310

Carla Esparza by decision +280

Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO in rounds 1 or 2 +250

Total Odds: +5353

The Ballsy Parlay

Total Odds: +123456

Did you notice I threw in some boxing? I wholeheartedly believe Canelo will win by decision tonight. Bivol is big, strong, and in his prime but Canelo is far more technically sound, and will land many punches while avoiding even more.

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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