• Keith

UFC 273 Betting Guide

When looking at this card, list easy to be speechless. Even more so when you look at the odds. This is a stacked card with seemingly lopsided fights, and a lot of handicappers giving out the same predictions and picks all over the internet- which is why I’m going to get you some of my favorite outside-of-the-box props.

While you’re here, check out this weeks episode of Pickin’ Fights, when we were joined by Joe A. to give a full comprehensive breakdown of the entire card.

Aleksei Oleinik -102 vs Jared Vanderaa -116

Oleinik certainly is old and a bit washed, but Vanderaa is every bit worse. He’s fat and out of shape even after a full camp, and he took this fight on short notice. Oleinik’s strong suit is grappling and Vanderaa has been masterfully out -grappled throughout his career, and is on the verge of being cut. Aleksei also has 59 career wins, and is on the cusp of his 60th tonight. I like Aleksei Oleinik ML -102 in this fight.

Mark Madsen +102 vs Vinc Pichel -120

I definitely like veteran Vinc Pichel in this fight, as he’s seeing a bit of a recent resurgence in his career. We were also sold on this guy Madsen as fans, being that he’s an Olympian wrestler, and he hasn’t delivered. Vinc Pichel hasn’t finished anyone since 2017, and Marc Madsen hasn’t taken much damage to his chin throughout his career so I like over 2.5 rounds at -205 for my parlay as well as Vinc Pichel via decision at +210.

Aspen Ladd +154 vs Raquel Pennington -184

Aspen Ladd has really had a tough start in her UFC career. She’s struggled to make weight, needs her coaches to verbally berate her in order to throw punches in late rounds, and overall looks unmotivated to win in sometimes. She was once said to be a future champion, but after a few fights in the UFC it’s clear that probably isn’t the case. Raquel Pennington is another name towards the upper half of the division and has wins over somewhat notable opponents such as Macy Chiasson and Marion Reneau, as well as hard fought battles with former champions Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes. This is a major step up in competition for Ladd; almost every bout she’s been scheduled for has been cancelled. Pennington is much better than Ladd on the feet, and has a very slight advantage over her on the ground. If Pennington can outstrike Ladd and prevent takedowns, or gain control in scrambles, this will be a 30-27 decision win for her. I’m going with Raquel Pennington by decision at +105 due to the intangibles such as Aspen Ladd’s recent lack of effort, and Pennington’s ability to fight on her feet. I’m also taking the Over rounds in this fight at 2.5 for -370 in my safe parlay.

Khamzat Chimaev -490 vs Gilbert Burns +380

Im going to be that guy. There has to be one major upset on this card. I have a rule, in which I typically abide. That is to fade the public. I’ve never seen a more publicly favorited fighter in the way that Khamzat Chimaev is. The public is also greatly underestimating Gil Burns, a guy who all UFC fans should know and love at this point. Gil has skills, on the feet and ground. He has the composure and mentality, that he learned after fighting Usman and demonstrated fighting Wonderboy, to stick to his game plan. Plus, the money line is so juicy. I’m aware that Khamzat is a generational talent- sometimes guys like that good lose early in their career and never lose again. Especially when they’ve never actually been punched in the face. This fight is certainly Khamzat’s to lose, and I’m willing to bet Gilbert Burns ML at +380. It is so rare to get a guy like Gil with that kinda line. Additionally, I don’t think Gil gets finished by Khamzat early if Khamzat does win the fight, so I’m also going to take over 1.5 rounds at -122. I am willing to accept that I could be terribly wrong with this pick, so I’m also going to hedge my bet with a FanDuel odds boost: Khamzat Chimaev to win in round 1 at +200.

Aljamain Sterling +340 vs Petr Yan -430

The odds here do not indicate how competitive this fight truly will be. Yan dominated Aljo in the first one, but there were a lot of factors contributing to that. Apparently Aljo had a bad neck injury, which was fixed surgically since their last fight over a year ago, his game plan was poor as he went for too many wild looping and spinning strikes rather than fundamental jabs and kicks, and his cardio was poor. Not to mention, Yan is so well rounded and was able to stuff Aljo’s takedowns. Aljo then expended a lot of energy trying to complete said takedowns. I think Yan truly wins this time around because he is the better fighter, but I don’t see either man getting finished in this fight. With that being said, I like the fight to go the distance at -108. I also like Petr Yan by decision at +125 due to the fact that he can do it all. Just in case he does sleep Aljo, I’m also taking a double chance bet; Petr Yan to win by KO/TKO OR decision at -360 in my parlay.

Alexander Volkanovski -770 vs Chang Sung Jung (The Korean Zombie) +540

Alexander Volkanovski is one of the featherweight goats. TKZ got this fight because there really wasn’t anyone else to put in, after Max Holloway suffered an injury in training. MMA math would tell us that Brian Ortega butchered the zombie, and Volk butchered Ortega, so Volk will annihilate the zombie. The zombie got his nickname because of his willingness to walk forward and absorb strikes to the chin while not sleeping; that will not work against Volk. Volk is just as much, if not more of an aggressor than the zombie, yet he doesn’t take shots because he can defend and move his head. Volk’s fight with Ortega was extremely close to being called done in his favor after he shut Ortega‘s eyes. I don’t expect to see that happen twice. I’m taking Alexander Volkanovski by KO/TKO at +210.

My Parlays

The Safer Parlay

Madsen/Pichel over 2.5 rounds -205

Ladd/Pennington over 2.5 rounds -370

Alexander Volkanovski DOUBLE CHANCE KO/TKO OR decision -480

Total Odds: +124

Risky Parlay

Raquel Pennington -184 Vinc Pichel -120

Petr Yan by decision +125

Alexander Volkanovski by KO/TKO +210

total odds: +1873

EDIT: threw in a last minute parlay, just in case. Sometimes I feel a bit shaky and want to hedge my bets. This is one of those times.

The semi-fade myself parlay:

Madsen/Pichel over 2.5 rounds -205

Ladd/Pennington over 2.5 rounds -370



Alexander Volkanovski BY POINTS -120

Total odds: +7106

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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