• Keith

UFC 272: Betting Guide

A lot of people are sleeping on this card. Sunday morning we’ll be talking about how great it was. Fans can look forward to seeing young prospect Bryce Mitchell, Kevin Holland’s transition to welterweight, and a major rivalry get settled in the main event. With that being said, here are my favorite picks for this card.

Kennedy Nzechukwu -146 vs Nick Negumereanu +124

Both of these guys are big hitting light heavyweights. I’m personally leaning towards Nick Negumereanu +124 because Kennedy Nzechukwu has shown in the past that if hit hard enough, he just gives up. I’m also putting this fight to NOT go the distance at -215 in my parlay.

ufc neguremeanu nzechukwu
Nick Negumereanu (left) & Kennedy Nzechukwu (right)

Marina Rodriguez -260 vs Xiaonon Yan +215

Marina Rodriguez is the far more intelligent and talented fighter in this matchup. She’s especially good in the clinch, against the cage, and at maintaining top position while on the ground. Women’s fights are judged heavily on control time. She also doesn’t really have KO power or aggression. This all bodes really well for my pick, Marina Rodriguez by decision +105.

Marina Rodriguez

Sergey Spivak -190 vs Greg Hardy +160

Greg Hardy keeps making his way onto main cards, and it’s astonishing. He’s a pretty bad fighter. He has 4 UFC victories, and those four men he has victories over have a combined record of 6-13. Spivak has wins over guys like Tai Tuivasa and Aleksei Oleinik. Spivak is just the better fighter in this match, so I’m taking his money line at -190. However, being that this is a heavyweight scrap, I’m also adding Greg Hardy vs Sergey Spivak to not go the distance at -230 to my parlay.

Kevin Holland -360 vs Alex Oliveira +290

The odds in this fight have moved dramatically in Kevin Holland’s favor since they first opened, and for good reason. Both men are standup strikers and Kevin Holland is way better at it than Cowboy Oliveira. Holland went on a bit of a skid, due to his lack of wrestling ability, so he trained with UFC legend Johny Hendricks and moved down to the more striker-friendly welterweight division. Being that he is such an entertaining fighter, due to his style and his Big Mouth, it seems like the UFC is giving the Texas native a super easy fight to get back on track. I‘m taking Kevin Holland double chance TKO or on Points at -240 in my parlay. A really sneaky pick that I’m also sprinkling a bit on, because he may actually be the better ground fighter in this matchup, is Kevin Holland by submission at +750. Not nearly as likely, but he has a few submission victories under his belt already.

Colby Covington -330 vs Jorge Masvidal +265

I can’t say much about the buildup to this fight that hasn’t already been said. Colby has way more paths to victory than Jorge. His grappling is leagues better than Jorge’s, and can choose to wrestle him for 5 rounds until achieving a decision victory. His striking isn’t as good as Jorge’s but he certainly has the ability to potentially put a man to sleep, especially after he tires them out with the wrestling pressure for a few rounds. For my parlay, I’m taking Colby Covington by decision at -105 because he has a propensity to just smother his opponent and it feels like the most likely outcome. However, I will be sprinkling just a bit on Colby Covington by KO/TKO at +310 as well, because Jorge isn’t known for great cardio against someone who pushes the pace Colby does, and Colby could also find Jorge in a vulnerable position on the ground to end the fight by ground and pound.

My Parlay

Nzechukwu vs Negumereanu to NOT go the distance -215

Marina Rodriguez by decision +105

Hardy vs Spivak to NOT go the distance -230

Kevin Holland by KO/TKO OR decision (double chance) -240

Colby Covington by decision -105

Total Odds: +1091


Nick Negumereanu by KO/TKO +300

Sergey Spivak -190

Kevin Holland by KO/TKO OR Submission (double chance) -120

Colby Covington by KO/TKO +310

Total Odds: +4540

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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