UFC 271: Picks and Predictions

The nice folks at UFC headquarters got us a pretty solid fight card for Super Bowl weekend. There are a few heavy locks tonight I’m here to put you casuals on.

Casey O’Neill -390 vs Roxanne Modafferi +310

I’m not one to say mean things online about people, but I don’t think anyone is a fan of Roxanne. Tonight’s her last fight on her UFC contract and she will most likely be retiring. She’s began fighting professionally the same time UFC 43 was going on, before the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, even before McGregor or Ronda Rousey started fighting. Over that time she’s amassed a record of 25-20 and has become pretty familiar with loss. Over the past few years she’s been used as a recognizable fighter to boost new prospects when they inevitably smoke her in the octagon. However, massive credit to her on a long career and many checks cashed. Now, like I said before, Roxanne doesnt have many fans, but I’m a huge fan of 8-0 prospect Casey O’Neill, especially in this very obvious setup fight. She’s young, and at 24 has a really promising career ahead of her. I expect her to have her way with Roxanne for 15 minutes tonight, outstriking her and taking her to the ground a few times. I’m taking Casey O’Neill by decision at -105 straight as well as in my parlay.

Andrei Arlovski -148 vs Jared Vanderaa +126

Andrei Arlovski is a high value bet at -148. He’s 43 years old and still doing it. His only losses have come to top tier heavyweights like Tom Aspinall, Francis Ngannou, and Tai Tuivasa. Jared Vanderaa is not a top tier heavyweight. Arlovski can outstrike Vanderaa and take him down at will. I‘m taking Andrei Arlovski ML at -148 and adding him to my parlay.

Kyler Phillips -420 vs Marcelo Rojo +330

Kyler Phillips beat Song Yadong. Marcelo Rojo is not Song Yadong. Kyler Phillips did lose to Chito Vera, who is climbing the bantamweight division, but that was an overly eager Kyler Phillips that gassed out. If Kyler stays patient tonight like he did against Yadong, he will come out on top. Kyler Phillips by decision at +300 is a really high value play in this fight.

Bobby Green -152 vs Nasrat Haqparast +128

Bobby Green all the way. His standup game is great, and he just put Al Iaquinta to sleep, which is a hard feat. He also looked really good when he lost to Rafael Fiziev in an entertaining fight, which easily could’ve been scored in his favor. Nasrat Haqparast looked terrible against Dan Hooker, who abused him for three rounds. Bobby Green should win this one, and I like him to do it by decision at +180. I’ll be taking him ML in my parlay as well.

Derrick Lewis -188 vs Tai Tuivasa +158

Its very likely that Derrick Lewis sleeps Tai Shooey-vasa tonight, but in a heavyweight bout like this one, anything can happen. Rather than picking a winner, I’m taking the under rounds at 1.5, -164. However, I am hoping to see a victory shoey tonight.

Israel Adesanya -290 vs Robert Whittaker +235

Not much to say about this rematch. Everyone knows what’s going to happen. (Just in case you didn’t, Adesanya will win by decision.) I’m taking Izzy via decision at +145 in my parlay, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t getting upset vibes from this fight. As in, Robert Whittaker upsets Izzy and shocks the world tonight. And the only way he does it is with his patented one-two-head kick combo. With that being said, I’m going to sprinkle a little bit on Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO at +600, just to make things interesting and hedge my bets.

My Parlay

Casey O’Neill by decision -105

Andrei Arlovski -148

Bobby Green -152

Under 1.5 rounds in Lewis-Tuivasa -164

Israel Adesanya by decision +145

Total odds: +2039

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.