- Keith
UFC 270: Picks and Predictions
Last week, we went 2-1 on my picks, including two big plus-money method of victory bets which I called perfectly. This week, lets beat that. For picks on the full main card, check out this weeks episode of Pickin Fights. Here are my favorite picks and locks for tonight’s card.
Cody Stamann +160 vs Said Nurmagomedov -190
Theres a few rules for UFC betting. One of those rules: you don’t bet against a Dagestani, especially if his last name is Nurmagomedov. Not sure if there’s any family relation to Khabib but the rule applies. Said Nurmagomedov has a lot of those Dagestan wrestling skills but also has heavy hands He’s won a few fights by TKO. Cody Stamann is on a two fight losing streak, those losses coming by way of decision from Merab Dvalishvili and Jimmie Rivera. Both of them have similar styles to Said Nurmagomedov and mix up wrestling and striking. I’m going with Said Nurmagomedov to win by points/decision at +120 to keep Cody Stamann’s losing streak going.
Michel Pereira -295 vs Andre Fiahlo +240
Michel Pereira is a really entertaining fighter. He last fought on the McGregor-Poirier 3 card, where you might remember him backflipping onto Niko Price’s face. Fiahlo has good hands, but I think Pereira’s timing and accuracy is better. Neither of them have a history of knockouts, or getting knocked out, so I’m going with Michel Pereira to win by points/decision at +195.
Brandon Moreno -174 vs Deiveson Figueredo +146
I really like Brandon Moreno to win this fight and retain his belt. He looks humble as ever and has the same relaxed, confident energy that won him the belt the last time around. Figueredo is too cocky that he’s getting the belt back, and appears overly aggressive once again. Plus, Figueredo has his own new walkout song, called “Get Figgy With It”. He’s so corny that I have to pick against him. I don’t think Figueredo will get finished again, as the first finish of his career came against Moreno in their last fight, but Moreno will put on a five round clinic. I’m taking Brandon Moreno ML -174 straight up, adding him to my parlay, and taking him straight to win by points/decision at +270. I also like Moreno double chance to win by submission or decision at -105.
Francis Ngannou +120 vs Cyril Gane -142
This is UFC matchmaking at its finest. In one corner, you’ve got Francis, the reigning champ, a powerful knockout artist that stripped one of the GOATs of his belt last year in devastating fashion. In the other corner, you’ve got Cyril, his former training partner, the undefeated interim champ, one of the best technical strikers in UFC history. I’m going with the contrarian pick here, taking Cyril Gane to win. I’ve been hot on him since mid 2021 when he beat Volkov. He moves and bounces like a lightweight, uses beautiful kicks to manage distance, and most importantly has a very high fight IQ. Of course, all of this goes out the window IF Francis knocks him out within the first three minutes. I believe Cyril will survive that time though, and have a gas tank that outlasts Francis’s, leading to him ultimately dominating the fight after the second round. Francis’s historical weakness was wrestling- that’s how he lost to Stipe. We haven’t really seen Cyril wrestle yet, but Francis has been doubting that he’ll shoot a takedown all week. My personal pick is for Cyril Gane to win by submission at +750. I also like double chance bets here, like Cyril Gane to win by submission or on points at +185, and to win by TKO or points at -110 This may be an insane pick to some people, but I think Francis will tire sooner than Cyril and be unprepared for a takedown, exposing himself to a submission (most likely armbar). Cyril could win this fight a million different ways whereas Francis only wins by early knockout. Ill also be taking Cyril Gane straight and in my parlay.
My Parlay
This isn’t nearly as big as some of the parlays Ive had in the past. I’m going with two picks, and I’m going all in on them. Brandon Moreno -174
Cyril Gane -142
Total Odds: +168
Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.