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  • Keith

UFC 269: Picks and Predictions

Great card to end the year. Should be some action packed entertaining fights, as well as a lot of live dogs that give this card high value. Here are my favorite picks.

Ryan Hall vs Darrick Minner

I like Ryan Hall, despite his last fight being a complete embarrassment. He broke his hand early in that one and starting doing imanari rolls all over the octagon. It looked ridiculous. Anyways, Ryan Hall is still one of the best BJJ experts out there, and Darrick Minner is decent on the ground but has a history of getting choked out from time to time. I like Ryan Hall by submission at +150.

Pedro Munhoz vs Dominick Cruz

Picking who’s winning this one is a coin flip. These are two vets of the game with really technical striking. They’ve both got solid chins and head movement and majority of their fights come to a decision. Over rounds is 2.5 at -240. Smartest pick here, throw it in your parlay.

Sean O’Malley vs Raulian Paiva

The UFC lines up cans for O’Malley, and he continues to knock them down. -310 favorite here, stick him in your parlay, and always sprinkle a bit on him to win by KO. Tonight its set at +105, high value here.

Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt

Cody was aware his time as a bantamweight was over. No belts to be won there, the talent surpassed him. He hasnt won a fight since 2017. So he moved down to flyweight, and his first fight there is against Kai Kara-France. Kai trains at City Kickboxing with Alexander Volkanovsk, Izzy Adesany, Dan Hooker, Brad Riddell and a lot of other savages. Kai can do it all, whether it be on his feet or the canvas, and is so technically sound. He’s got high fight IQ, and is going to continue to work his way up the division. Cody, on the other hand is in the twilight of his career. He looks slow, he’s no longer aggressive, and when he speaks you can hear how much brain damage he’s taken over the years. Go with Kai Kara-France at +115.

Geoff Neal vs Santiago Ponzinnibio

Geoff Neal had to take some time out of his fight camp to go to court after he was arrested for a DUI. Alcoholism is no joke, and it doesn’t really bode well for modern athletes. Ponzinnibio has shown that he’s got really solid standup and a rock solid chin, especially in his fight with Miguel Baeza. Post hiatus Ponzinnibio is a different kinda dog and I like him to win here at -112.

Amanda Nunes vs Julianna Peña

There is nothing to say about this one. Amanda Nunes is -1000. I’m going to add her as a leg to my parlay just because I can.

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier

This is what some may call a contrarian pick. I’m riding with Charlie tonight. Lots of casuals taking Dustin because they just saw him beat up McGregor and still consider him to be one of the best in the world. Dustin most likely wins this fight with his boxing if it doesn’t go to the ground. I say most likely because Charles has really long reach that he implements well by jabbing, and showed us hes got power in his hands when he fought Chandler for the belt, so he would still have a chance. However, if this fight goes to the ground, Dustin has no chance at all. Charles has the most submission victories in UFC history and Dustin has a history of leaving his neck open to get choked out. I really think this fight goes to the ground early because Charles likes to slip under jabs and go for a double leg takedown. Dustin also typically slips punches by leaning back, exposing his hips for another takedown. Charles Oliviera to win straight up, in my parlay, and taking him by submission at +275.

My Parlay

Over 2.5 rounds in Munhoz-Cruz -240

Sean O’Malley -310

Kai Kara-France +115

Amanda Nunes -1000

Charles Oliveira +116

Totals out to +857.

Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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