• Keith

UFC 265: (Lewis vs Gane) Betting Picks

Today was a busy day so I’m keeping it short. Bread stacking time? I think so.

Alonzo Menifield vs Ed Herman

At -250, Alonzo Menifield is my prelim lock. He looked great in his comeback fight. He’s too explosive and too athletic for Herman. Much stronger in the clinch and ground game. Ed Herman’s been around the block and took a lot of damage in previous fights. If it stays a standup fight, lock in Meniifeld for a KO.

Michael Chiesa vs Vicente Luque

Both guys could potentially get a title shot out of this fight, and they’re both looking for a belt. Chiesa is very good in the grapple game, and smothers dudes on the ground, but Luque’s stand up is crazy good and has decent grappling skills. Luque KO’d Tyron Woodley in his last fight, back in March, and is very active. Chiesa is very inactive and only fought twice since July 2019. Chiesa could be on top the whole 15 minutes but barely throws strikes from there. Luque has bricks for hands and good takedown defense. He trains and is cornered by Gilbert Burns. Love Luque’s odds here at -115/-120, so that’s who I’m going with.

Jose Aldo vs Pedro Munhoz

Look at Aldo’s career. He was at the top of the world, fell massively, and now by circumstance is a co-main event. Aldo targets the body of his opponents heavily, and Munhoz doesn’t eat body shots well. Aldo is too fast, with a height and reach advantage. Aldo seems old because of how long he’s been around, but he’s only 34. He’s seeking the belt currently held by Aljamain Sterling. Munhoz is too, and while he could get it done tonight, I like Aldo’s chances at -120. Most likely to win by decision due to the volume of strikes he’ll be throwing.


Derrick Lewis vs Cyril Gane

A lot of controversy around this fight for the interim heavyweight championship, which was booked due to Ngannou’s inactivity. Derrick Lewis, the funniest man in all of sports, defies all laws of reality. He’s done crazy shit throughout his career, and is tied for the knockout record. Everyone seems to be going with Cyril Gane tonight, which has shifted the lines massively. They could be right. Gane’s undefeated after almost 2 years in the UFC. His fights are boring, almost too technical, and typically end in a decision. When Derrick Lewis faces ultra-technical fighters, he somehow loses the whole fight and then randomly one shot KO’s them. I like him to do that tonight. It’s a ballsy pick, but if Lewis can do what he’s done to do many others and draw Gane in close, Gane will be sleeping. I don’t want a boring main event with Gane winning by decision. I’m taking Derrick Lewis straight at around+260, as well as by KO. He’s fighting in front of the home crowd at Houston and wants to give them something to remember before he fights Francis. I have (almost) no doubt that he will do so. Just a matter of chance and timing for the Black Beast.

My Parlay

Alonzo Menifield -250

Vicente Luque -115

Jose Aldo -120

This comes out to +379.

Like my picks? Hate em? Or more importantly, if I helped you stack some bread, let me know on Twitter @53keppi. Bet responsibly

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