- Keith
UFC 263 Betting Picks and Predictions
We’ve got an electric event upon us tonight. Rematches between some of the biggest names, sold out crowds, and an opportunity to stack some bread. Here are my picks for the night.
Prelim Locks
Joanne Calderwood -124 vs Lauren Murphy +105
Joanne Calderwood is so technically sound. You can see that in her most recent fights, especially her last one against Jessica Eye. Despite being 34, she is still the younger fighter in this matchup. Her strikes are crisp, with 49% accuracy on strikes and almost 7 significant strikes landed per minute. She does damage with knees and elbows in the clinch, has 55% takedown accuracy, and boasts solid defense at 53% significant strikes blocked or avoided.
Murphy does have a 2 inch longer reach on paper, but only has nearly 4 significant strikes per minute as opposed to Joanne’s 5, and only 38% striking accuracy. She does have slightly better defense standing and against takedowns, TD DEF at 70%, but a low takedown accuracy at 37% so we won’t see many in this fight. It will take place on the feet.
Joanne Calderwood will piece up Lauren Murphy and end Murphys 4 win streak here. With her current line, I feel good about taking Calderwood straight, as well as adding her to my parlay.
Eryk Anders -145 vs Darren Stewart +115
Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart last fight together was in March, when Eryk Anders was knocked out Stewart with an illegal knee, and Stewart won. Anders was piecing up Stewart the entire fight last time, clobbered him and Stewart had no answers for him. Anders would’ve won that fight, and if not for the illegal move, he would’ve probably knocked out Stewart with his hands. Since this is such fast turn around, not long enough for Stewart’s chin or brain to fully recover, I’m taking the former Alabama football player Eryk Anders as a lock to repeat his last performance, minus the knee, to win this one. At -145 I’ll take him straight and add him to my parlay.
Main Card
Paul Craig +220 vs Jamahal Hill -290
Jamahal Hill has solid takedown defense at 53%. Paul Craig loves takedowns and wrestling, and isn’t nearly as good on his feet as Hill. Hill lands almost 8 significant strikes per minute. Craig doesn’t land nearly as many strikes. Hill will also be coming in an inch taller with a three inch reach advantage, and is 4 years younger than Craig. I’m taking Hill here as a semi lock and a parlay booster.
Demain Maia +190 vs Belal Muhammad -235
Demain Maia is old. 43 years old. He doesn’t throw strikes or takedowns the way he used to. Belal Muhammad, on the flip side, is young and has been fighting some top welterweight competition, his last fight being against Leon Edwards. This is a setup fight for Belal against good competition to put him back into the spotlight. UFC loves Belal and wants him to be a star, and knows Demain Maia’s name still carries weight even though he’s so close to retirement. I’ll be taking Belal Muhammad in my parlay due to the steep odds.
Leon Edwards -500 vs Nate Diaz +380
Tough one here, and not because I think Nate Diaz is as good as Leon Edwards, but because I love big underdog lines and Nate Diaz will always be a fan favorite. You can never count Nate out. We could make the same case for Leon that we did for Belal though, that the UFC loves him and wants him to have a huge win against a very reputable, if not household name. Leon already has decision wins over guys like RDA and Cowboy. Plus, Nate has so much scar tissue on his face that’ll open up and bleed with a strong enough breeze. I did see a meme that Nate Diaz doesn’t lose fights, he just runs out of time. If this is the case, Nate still does have a chance, (if he can avoid bleeding too much) because it is a 5 round bout. Leon has title shot on his hands here, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to end this one in stunning fashion. My brain tells me Leon’s going to win, but at -500 I don’t even want to put money on him. My gut tells me Nate Diaz is going to get it done, so I’m going to sprinkle a little on Nate Diaz at +380, but between Leon’s skill level and Nate Diaz’s wear and tear, it’s a risky play.
Devieson Figueredo -250 vs Brandon Moreno +200
Figueredo is angry. If you’ve watched Embedded, he clearly has a vendetta against Moreno, for saying in their last fight he wasn’t really hurt or sick and we actually saw the best version of Figueredo. Meanwhile Figueredo was in the hospital the night before his fight. sick as a dog after eating some bad food. Plus he cut weight. This is the same fight as last time, but Figueredo is healthy. Figueredo landed strikes at will and hurt Moreno for the entirety of their last fight, but Moreno did do some damage as well. Figueredo is now healthy and can do even more against Moreno. Plus, with Figueredo’s anger, and promise to knock Moreno out at the press conference, I like him even more now. Adding Figueredo to my parlay, and considering taking him for a KO/TKO at +175.
Israel Adesanya -260 vs Marvin Vettori +200
This is a rematch of Izzy’s hardest fight before becoming middleweight champ, in the same exact building it took place in last time. Everything here spells Izzy. Some people are going to call me crazy, but I have a gut feeling Marvin Vettori gets it done here. There is literally no logic to this pick, as Izzy has a few paths to victory in this fight, and Marvin only has 1. I have no reason for taking Marvin here besides gut feeling. I’m probably wrong, but when I follow my gut things work out. Call me crazy. Super risky play here but I’m taking Marvin Vettori +200 to win.
My Parlay
Joanne Calderwood -124
Eryk Anders -145
Jamahal Hill -290
Belal Muhammad -235
Devieson Figueredo -250
Total Odds: +719