• Keith

UCC Fight Night: Volkov vs Rozenstruik Betting Guide

Decent card today. Early start time, prelims begin at 1 pm and the main card at 4 pm. Here are my favorite picks:


Erin Blanchfield -550 vs JJ Aldrich +390

Erin Blanchfield is a big time up and comer. She’s great at wrestling, and even controlled Miranda Maverick on the ground, and she’s no slouch. JJ Aldrich prefers to stand and bang, so this is a bad matchup for her. I’m taking Erin Blanchfield by decision at -175.

Jeff Molina -188 vs Zhaglas Zhumagulov +152

Jeff Molina is a fast starter and an all around good fighter. He’s got solid standup as well as good fight IQ when he gets taken down. He snaps jabs and front kicks to manage distance and he’s the bigger guy in this meeting, so that game plan will work for him. Should he get taken down he knows how to get to full guard and scoot his butt back to the cage. Im taking Jeff Molina ML -188.

Damon Jackson -700 vs Daniel Argueta +470

Daniel Argueta is making his debut on short notice in a weight class he isn’t typically in. That’s the trifecta. Too bad this one doesn’t have better money line odds because Damon Jackson is a lock.

Ode Osborne -194 vs Zarrukh Adashev +156

Ode Osborne is the better striker and already maintains distance well against opponents, and in this fight he’s got an 8 inch reach advantage. Ode does some of his best work when he’s got range. Expect combinations from him that Adashev doesn’t even see coming. The pick is Ode Osborne -194.

Karine Silva -128 vs Poliana Botehlo +104

Little bit of a tough one here because Silva is making her debut today and we all know fighters making their debut have struggled in 2022. I’m taking Silva here at -128 because Poliana has also struggled recently, especially against opponents like Silva that boast great BJJ. I’m also taking a double chance bet for Silva by submission OR KO/TKO at +230 because almost 40% of Silva‘s wins have come by submission and Poliana had shown a weakness there. Silva has never won a fight by decision, she’s always either snatched a limb or a neck or put her opponents to sleep.

Alonzo Menifield -250 vs Askar Mozharov +198

Askar Mozharov has fought in the Chinese regional scene for a long time, where his record was padded by fighting cans. It actually just came out that his whole record of 25-7 was fraudulent and he’s got a lot more losses to his name. Alonzo Menifield has UFC experience and a few good fights and wins throughout his time there. Menifield ML at -250 is a mortal lock. There’s also a high chance he exposes this bum tonight by putting him to sleep or making him tap, so the double chance bet is great here too. Menifield by TKO OR Submission at -170.

Lucas Almeida +186 vs Mike Trizano -235

Taking Mike Trizano -235 here because Almeida is making his debut. Stats. Also, Almeida seems a bit wild and Trizano fights reserved. He’s got skills that have given him a nice lengthy career since his TUF days.

Dan Ige +330 vs Mosvar Evloev -450

Evloev is an extremely dominant undefeated Russian wrestler. Dan Ige is good but not good enough, and we saw him get controlled on the ground by The Korean Zombie. I like Evloev by decision -175.

Alexander Volkov -162 vs Jarzhino Rozenstruik +132

Solid heavyweight scrap. Going with the contrarian pick here in Rozenstruik. He goes win-loss-win-loss-win…. So on. His last fight was a loss. we’ve also seen too versions of Rozenstruik, the one who tries to fight from range and the aggressive bomber. Volkov has the ability to tangle with the less aggressive one because that’s how he fights too and is better at it. Volkov hasn’t been eating big punches as well recently. Banking on Bigi Boi to come out aggressively so I’m taking Rozenstruik by KO/TKO at +190, but if you feel like Volkov gets it done then taking him to win by decision is a wise pick as well.

Parlay

Blanchfield by points -175

Damon Jackson -700

Ode Osborne -194

Menifield by KO/Submission (double chance) -170

Karine Silva KO/Submission (double chance) +230

Evloev by decision -175

Total Odds: +1861


Like my picks? Hate em? Let me know on Twitter @pickinKeith. Be responsible.

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