Ryley's Daily Basketball Pick: April 6th

The Oklahoma City Thunder are set to take on the Utah Jazz at 9 pm. Looking at these two teams' overall records you would assume the Jazz should blow the Thunder out, but some trends suggest otherwise.

The Thunder have covered three out of their last five and eight out of their last ten. The Jazz haven’t covered a game in their last five and only covered two out of their last ten. On the road the Thunder are 27-11 ATS, while the Jazz are 16-22-1 ATS on their home court. Both these teams are playing with no rest. The Jazz are 4-7-1 in these scenarios while the Thunder are 7-6. When facing off against an opponent with equal rest, the Thunder are 27-14-1, with the Jazz being 17-25-1 ATS.

After winning their previous game the Jazz are 21-24-1 ATS in their following game, as the Thunder are 13-8-2. With the Jazz coming off one of their biggest wins of the season, I don’t know how motivated they will be to cover this big points spread. The Thunder have been scrappy all season, being one of the best cover teams in the NBA. With the Thunder playing hard down to the final whistle, a 16 point victory is a lot to ask out of the Jazz. My pick is OKC Thunder +17.5