PLL Week 2 Picks and Predictions
The PLL season is officially underway and the boys are headed to Charlotte for week two. Last week we went 4-6 through all our bets. Now that we have an idea of what these teams can do let’s try to cash some more tickets.
**Odds provided by Draftkings Sportsbook**
6/10 6:00 PM EST Redwoods (-160) -1.5 vs Chrome (+130) O/U 23.5
Last week the Redwoods had the honor of participating in the first Premier lacrosse League game to air live on regular ESPN television. However they also have the honor of getting manhandled in a 17-11 loss to the high powered offense of the Atlas. it was apparent early on in that game that the Redwoods could not handle them. I give tremendous props to Jules Heningburg as he stepped in to play attack when Rob Pannel went out of the game. He scored 4 goals on 5 shots and looked great while doing it. Rookie Nakeie Montgomery also found himself on the board with a 2 Pointer and an assist. Chrome came away with a straight up victory as 2.5 goal underdogs against the Archers. There’s something about the Chrome that they just play better when they are not given enough respect by the odds makers. Chrome face off man Connor Farrell had a great day, going 14 for 23 with 11 ground balls. Dylan Malloy led the way in scoring with 4 points (2G,2A). Brendon Nichtern also looks super promising and his Ricky campaign as he started it off with 3 points (2 G,1A) for himself. The Redwoods started off last season 2-0 and so I do not think they’re gonna let themselves to start this one 0-2. They beat the Chrome 14-11 during their meeting last season. I think that their faceoff man TD Ierlan will make it super competitive with Farrell. Both teams' goalies have potential to play very well so I think that factors into the total of this game. The Chrome were 1.5 point dogs five times last year and did not cover a single time (PLT). The Redwoods were favored one and a half six times last season and only covered twice (PLT). I’m giving the Redwoods the edge here. I think that their defense will step it up after last week. I like the Redwoods ML here because they have not shown strong ability to cover.
The Pick: Redwoods -160
6/10 8:45 PM EST Archers (-170) -1.5 vs Chaos (+140) O/U 22.5
As mentioned above the Archers did not get it done last week losing 11-10. Their offense has a high ceiling even without Grant Ament and they failed to make the most of it. They had three players with four point games but it still was not enough. I think it was just a case of not getting going soon enough. Tom Schreiber also only had one assist and no goals which definitely makes a difference. The other big factor is that their goalie Adam Ghitelman was only able to make 8 saves. The Chaos and their “replacements” definitely sure they could hang last week. They came up one goal short in their championship rematch against the Whipsnakes. They made this a way more interesting game than most people thought they would. They had a wide point distribution throughout the team. Goalie and reigning league MVP Blaise Riordan also had a nice day with 13 saves and 59% save percentage. They battled all the way until the end and I fell victim to some late game Whips magic, giving up a goal with 4 seconds left ultimately losing 9-8. Call recency bias but I think that the chaos can make this matchup with the Archers a game. The Whips were practically at full strength and they made it a one goal game. They also re-signed Austin Staats after his off the field altercation last year that led to his dismissal. He’s a massive offensive threat and I think he will provide some juice to this team. They look hungry and as we all know they love when people doubt them I’ll take them and the points. I also like the Under here as well.
The Picks: Chaos +1.5, Under 22.5
6/11 6:00 PM EST Atlas (-210) -2.5 vs Cannons (+165) O/U 24.5
What else can I say about these two teams other than offense. These guys looked unstoppable last week in their respective games. The question for the atlas was how would the offense function with so much talent. Like they say, “there’s only one ball”. Well the answer is that they dominated. From the very get-go the Atlas were full tilt and they looked like they had been playing together for years. Jeff Teat picked up right where we left off last year. He and Eric Law both had seven points a piece in this one. I will say that the atlas defense was not spectacular, they started to let the Redwoods back into the game towards the end. It also seems that they are still unsure of which go away they’re going to put in the cage between Jack Concannon and JD Colarusso. I will say that when the Alice offense is firing on all cylinders, I do not think that there is a defense in the league that he can run with them. The Cannons had themselves a very similar afternoon against the Waterdogs. I would personally like to apologize to the Cannons for ever doubting them. From the first whistle they were all gas, no brakes. Last week I said that the Cannon’s defense would be their downfall in this game. Well they went by the game plan of, your defense can’t hurt you if you don’t have to play defense. What I mean by that is that Cannons face off man Steven Kelly was unstoppable in the first half, giving them endless offensive possessions and they were making every shot they took. Lyle Thompson finished on top with 6 points, 4 of them coming in the first quarter. Asher Nolting showed that he will be able to produce us a rookie scoring the first score of the game and then adding a second one later on. It is most definitely a recency bias but I think that this will be a high scoring offensive affair. Both defenses do not respond well to constant pressure. Last season these teams faced off three times throughout the course of the year. The Atlas came away with the win in all three of them, and two of them were by one goal. History tends to repeat itself in the world of sports. Last season, the spread was -2.5 in 8 games and the favored team only covered it twice (PLT). I think that these teams can go goal for goal in a shootout. I’m taking the Cannons +2.5 and the Over.
The Picks: Cannons +2.5, Over 24.5
6/11 8:45 PM EST Whipsnakes (-130) -1.5 vs Waterdogs (+100) O/U 23.5
So at this point we know that the Waterdogs got blown out and the Whipsnakes won at the last second. The Waterdogs looked a lot better in the second half against the cannons but unfortunately they got it going a bit too late. They actually out scored the Cannons in the third quarter and the fourth quarter but giving up 12 first half goals is usually too much to overcome. They have a lot of talent on their team, the one piece they’re missing is their starting goalie Dillon Ward. He is currently ffinishing up in the NLL finals with a Colorado Mammoth. They had backup goalie Matt Deluca in the cage and he unfortunately got shelled. I fear that the Whipsnakes may do the same. They had a lot of goal distribution against the chaos and honestly they didn’t miss a beat. Mike Chanenchuk had himself a day with three goals including the game winner. I don’t think there’s much to say about this game. I think that right now, the Waterdogs have a lot to prove. I think that they can make this competitive but I don’t think they’ll be able to get past the Whipsnakes with the way their defense looked last week. I’ll play it safe and take the Whips straight up, they’re getting good moneyline value and that goes a long way when betting in this league.
The Pick: Whipsnakes -130
Props for Lacrosse are back once again. They are only offering player point props at the moment. A player's points in lacrosse are their combined goals and assists for the game. If they have 2 goals and 1 assist, they have 3 points in the stat book.
Here’s what I am taking this weekend:
Mac O’Keefe O1.5 Points
Jules Heningburg O2.5 Points
Tom Schreiber O2.5 Points
Mike Chanenchuk O1.5 Points
Those are my predictions for this weekend's games. Stay tuned for another blog dropping soon with my predictions for next time. If you like my picks, or disagree with me, let me know on Twitter @t_hohenshelt. As always lets have ourselves a weekend and make some money, responsibly.