• The Locksmith

Nets/Bucks Game 7, 76ers in Trouble, and Jazz/Clippers Picks and Predictions

This is the blog for the unders. That’s right your eyes are not deceiving you.


This is playoff basketball. The series are deep into the ‘if-necessary’ games, which means teams have figured out the matchups that stifle their opponents weaknesses. These are not the eye-popping picks and ones that are fun to bet on. Now let me tell you why these are the right plays.


Friday

76ers vs Hawks

The 76ers (-3) have blown leads in back to back games. Philly simply does not have the offense to keep up with Atlanta, keeping them at bay for long enough. They don’t shoot enough threes. Ben Simmons is virtually unplayable. It has reached the point in the series where his offensive inadequacy outweighs his defensive utility. The Hawks are daring Philly to put Tobias Harris to work in the post. Joel Embiid looks like he has tan out of gas in the second halves of the previous two games. Atlanta has too much offensive firepower and play-making in Trae Young, Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, and Bogdonovic for Philly to score with them. Seth Curry is a liability on defense and can’t run a Pick’N’Roll every time. Both teams defenses are good enough to make this a battle like in the early 2000s.

The Picks: Hawks +3 and Under 221.5


Clippers vs Jazz

Paul George exploding wasn’t shocking with Kawhi out, but Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris having efficient 20 point outbursts is. This was the first time Donovan Mitchell missed his points prop this series, ruining my prop lock. The Clippers stole game 5 in Utah. The Jazz (-1.5) have struggled offensively on the road in this series, as they squandered their 2-0 lead once stepping foot in the Staples Center. Utah is missing Mike Conley as a second shot creator and Gobert is not as productive without him. Both teams are missing crucial pieces of their offenses and will struggle to score.

The Pick: Under 220


Saturday

Nets vs Bucks

Game 7. In Brooklyn. This is winner take all. The winner of this game likely wins the East. The Nets (-1) have won every home game in the series. Their supporting cast doesn’t play as well on the road and the Bucks have their best performances at home. Mr Whammy and the crowd at the Barclays Center get in Giannis’ head at the free throw line. Durant will go for 30+ again. Harden hit some threes in Game 6 and looks like he’s getting more comfortable on the court. Game 7s are defensive battles. The Nets will take lots of charges on Giannis. PJ Tucker and Jrue Holiday will much things up. KD will need to guard Middleton. The under has hit in 6 out of the last 8 Nets games.

The Picks: Nets -1 and Under 215


Chirp me if I've let you down, or send me some love if I made you money. My Twitter is @PetesPix33. With my record being what it is, I wouldn't blame you if you faded my picks, however, this is still the week we get back on track. So you should probably tail me (responsibly).





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