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  • The Locksmith

NBA Finals Game 6-Picks and Predictions

Teams that win Game 5, win the series over 70% of the time.

The Suns are -37 when Devin Booker is off of the court in this series. The combo of Chris Paul and Cameron Payne is -28, but that is the guard duo the Suns have to play to take the pressure off CP3 when Book is resting.

The Suns are playing incredibly on offense. They are the second team to shoot 50% from the field, 65% from three and 90% from the line and lose in 2500 games. Over the last three losses, Phoenix would have the highest scoring offense during the regular season if that was the average output. Only thing is that Milwaukee is scoring at a higher clip.

The Bucks have been scoring at a pace of 150 points per 100 possessions in transition. This blows away other teams in the league currently and the potency of their transition attack rivals that of the Big 3 in Miami. The world knows Giannis is unstoppable in the open court. The guy can take one dribble to get from half court to the rim and is a major reason the Bucks have been so potent. DeAndre Ayton is the only Sun with the size that can affect Giannis and Ayton alone is simply not enough.

The Bucks have been limiting a huge component of the Suns' offense. Phoenix has shot 30 corner threes throughout the 5 games of this series for an average of 6 per game. They averaged 10 per game during the regular season. 13 of those 30 attempts came in game two. Those who read the previous blogs will remember limiting the corner threes as a key for stopping the Suns. Milwaukee isn’t over-helping on drives from Book, which limits the corner threes. They’re letting him take difficult mid-range shots, which he has been hitting. The Suns can’t win without Book having 40. They definitely can’t win without the Suns’ wing players not having great games and hitting corner threes.

Milwaukee is rolling at both ends of the floor right now. If Suns in 4 guy doesn’t want to become Suns Lost 4 guy, something has to go wrong for the Bucks. Middleton has to have a horrible game. Holiday has to have one of his poor shooting games. Giannis has to get in foul trouble. Unlikely that will all happen. The Bucks are rolling. Phoenix can’t stop them.

Although some of the games haven’t been close in this series, it has been a captivating one. The pick means the series will be over, but basketball has been more surprising in the past. The Bucks winning means their huge haul to get Jrue Holiday is worth it and have figured out how to play with their big 3. Phoenix has learned that Bridges, Johnson and Payne are not ready to be tertiary contributors on a championship team. They need playmaking help but it is a stepping stone to have been up 2-0 in the Finals to a better team.

The Pick: Bucks ML -200

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