- The Locksmith
NBA Betting Picks and Predictions 7.0- June 11-13
This second round has been compelling and evenly matched across all of the series, minus a few outlying games. The playoffs are all about adjustments and readjustments to what the opponent does.
The Bucks followed up a 39 point loss by cutting off the perimeter shooting of the Nets’ supporting cast, taking a great defensive (read horrific shooting) Game 3 by 3 points. I’m finding it more and more shocking that the Clippers can’t seem to stop their opponent’s #1 option, first Luka now Donovan Mitchell, with Kawhi and PG on the court. Denver needs to give MVP Jokic some help.
76ers vs Hawks
The Hawks (ML +100) stole Game 1 and took home court and then Philly (-1) stomped the Hawks before heading to visit Lou Williams at Magic City for some lemon pepper wings. The 6ers adjusted their defense to put larger defenders in Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle on Trae Young to limit his playmaking. Atlanta needs to counter with keeping as much secondary playmaking in Bogdon Bogdonovic and Kevin Heurter on the court. Joel Embiid can't be stopped and Simmons simply cannot have another game where he takes 3 shots and lets Hack-A-Ben get the best of him mentally. He needs to be more of a force in transition and Doc Rivers needs to run more sets involving a Simmons-Embiid cross screen in the paint to open up paint looks for both. The occasional Embiid-Simmons high-low would prove wonders in shaking things up.
The Pick: 76ers -1
Suns vs Nuggets
The Nuggets (-1.5) need to use their first home game to boost the play of their supporting cast or they will be starting their summer in a few days. Jokic needs Michael Porter Jr and Monte Morris to shoot better than a combined 4-20 in Game 2 to stand a chance. This feels like a MPJ outburst game to me. Its not just out of necessity, but he usually follows up a horrible shooting performance with a dominant shotmaking game. Phoenix will continue its efficient offensive output and will put up points. This game is a toss up if Denver shoots well.
The Pick: Over 223
Lock of the Weekend: MPJ Over 17.5 points
Jazz vs Clippers
The Clippers (-4) are facing an 0-2 deficit like they did in the first round, but this Jazz (ML +165) team is another animal, even without Mike Conley. There is no defensive counter for Spida Mitchell, who has hit his points prop in 5 straight games. The Jazz just pick up the speed of their passing in the halfcourt to trump the Clippers’ small/switchable lineup. The Clippers need to use Boogie Cousins and Ivica Zubac more to develop more of an inside-out game to get open threes. This is an absolute must win game for LA against the most complete team in the NBA. I think we we have another close one.
The Pick: Jazz +4
Nets vs Bucks
The Bucks (ML -105) still have yet to shoot well from three, even in Game 3 at home. They deserve credit for keeping the Nets’ wings in Joe Harris and Landry Shamet from getting hot from three and making Kevin Durant work for his buckets. With the Nets (-1) up 2-1, it is much more intriguing of a series. The Nets should not have lost Game 3 since there is no way in hell Bruce Brown takes the last two shots (not counting KD’s heave at the buzzer) when you have Kyrie Irving and KD, who happened to score their last 7 points. Even for a rookie head coach, Steve Nash needs to know KD in isolation or a Kyrie-KD pick and roll is what you live or die by. The Nets’ defense, especially Kyrie’s, has been a surprise to me and something that I have been waiting to see as they make this run. Joe Harris will not have back to back games going 1-11 (1-7 from three). Harris and Shamet combined for 6 points. This cant and wont happen again.
The Pick: Nets -1
Chirp me if I've let you down, or send me some love if I made you money. My Twitter is @PetesPix33. With my record being what it is, I wouldn't blame you if you faded my picks, however, this is still
the week we get back on track. So you should probably tail me (responsibly).